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U.S. crude oil monthly futures closed up on Monday (Monday). The U.S. dollar, or. %, quoted in USD/barrel. Brent crude oil monthly futures closed up .USD, or .%, at .USD/barrel on Monday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-oil-producing countries reached an agreement on joint production cuts for the first time this year. The scale of production cuts was the largest in history. This boosted oil prices and once jumped to a monthly high. U.S. crude oil futures prices hit an intraday high of .$/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures prices hit an intraday high of .$/barrel.
Fundamental positive factors:
The first joint production reduction agreement in 2019 was reached with non-oil-producing countries in Vienna on Saturday (May 1). Non-oil-producing countries have agreed to cut production by 10,000 barrels per day to cooperate with the production reduction actions of oil-producing countries. The current market focus is on the specific implementation of the agreement. Although it is less than the expected 10,000 barrels per day, it is still the largest production reduction cooperation in the history of non-oil-producing countries.
This week the Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of the year, and the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 10 basis points. However, the market remained cautious before the interest rate decision was released, and the U.S. dollar index continued to decline, hitting an intraday low of .
The first production reduction agreement since the beginning of the year was reached on March 1, in which Saudi Arabia assumed a larger part of the production reduction targets. In addition, Russia has also expressed its willingness to cooperate in production reduction, which is the first cooperation consensus reached with Russia in 2018, while Azerbaijan, another non-oil-producing country, has also expressed its willingness to engage in production reduction talks. The production reduction agreement also triggered a large-scale frenzied trading, especially the trading volume of Brent crude oil futures year and month contracts, because the effect of the production reduction agreement will be more visible by then. The production reduction agreement reached plans to reduce the organization's production by 10,000 barrels per day starting from September 2019, returning to the level of September 2019.
According to the latest data from the China Bureau of Statistics, as the world's largest energy consumer, China's monthly crude oil production fell .% month-on-month to 10,000 tons (approximately . The continued downturn has inhibited the interest of the world's fifth largest oil-producing country in restarting old oil wells. It also fell by more than % year-on-year, and its monthly production fell by .% year-on-year. China, the world's fifth-largest oil producer last year, has cut production by 10,000 barrels per day this year, which is a larger reduction than Russia's surprise commitment by all non-oil-producing countries. Energy consulting firms predict that China's crude oil production will continue to decline next year, with the expected decrease reaching 10,000 barrels per day.
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 0.0 million barrels in the week ending March 2019 to 0.1 billion barrels, a decrease of .%. It has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the market expected a decrease. Thousands of barrels. In addition, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.000 barrels to 0.000 barrels per day last week, ending three consecutive weeks of growth and remaining below the 10,000 barrels per day mark for consecutive weeks.
Fundamental negative factors:
U.S. oil services company Baker Hughes released data on Friday (June 2) showing that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 100,000 in the week ended 2020, the most since 2019. The largest single-week increase also hit the highest level since the beginning of the year. Increases have been recorded in every week in the past week, and the cumulative increase has reached 100,000. The total number of active oil and gas rigs drilling in the United States increased by 1,000 rigs and decreased by 10 rigs from the same period last year.
Bloomberg’s survey of analysts from institutions such as China and . Although the production reduction agreement may help eliminate excess supply in the market and boost oil prices, Chinese imports remain the key to a sustained recovery in oil prices. As Asia's top crude oil importer and the world's top crude oil market, China's insatiable demand is an important driving force that pushed oil prices above the dollar mark in the past year. According to forecasts, China's crude oil import growth next year will drop to %% from 2019.
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 10,000 barrels in the week ending March 30, and the market forecast was for an increase of 10,000 barrels. The increase has been recorded for four consecutive weeks, and the increase has been the largest since the week March maximum. U.S. refined oil inventories increased by 10,000 barrels, and market estimates were for an increase of 10,000 barrels. U.S. crude oil imports increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 10,000 barrels per day. At the same time, inventories in Cushing, the U.S. crude oil delivery site, increased by 0.0 million barrels, recording increases for two consecutive weeks, the largest increase since January.