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The International Energy Agency () monthly report showed that global crude oil supply hit a new high in May, and the United States on Crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories both recorded unexpected large increases this week, and negative factors such as the Federal Reserve's imminent rate hike have put pressure on oil prices. Investors will later focus on monthly reports and U.S. inventories.
Although the agreement to cut production has kept oil prices at a relatively high level, and the continued decline in China's crude oil production has also effectively boosted bull confidence, monthly reports, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, crude oil inventories and other negative news have suppressed oil prices, making it difficult for crude oil to move forward.
Negative 1: The monthly report stated that if the production reduction agreement with non-country countries is complied with, the oil market will experience a shortage of 10,000 barrels per day in the first half of next year. The monthly report predicts that annual production will increase by 10,000 barrels/day to 10,000 barrels/day. Non-state oil supply is expected to increase by 10,000 barrels per day to 10,000 barrels per day.
Negative 2: U.S. crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories both recorded unexpected large increases last week, limiting the room for oil prices to rise. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday (July 2) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 10,000 barrels in the week ending March 20, compared with expectations for a decline of 1,000 barrels.
Negative 3: The Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Yellen will also hold a press conference later. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 1 basis point, and the current market is particularly concerned about whether it will be a dovish or hawkish rate hike. The dollar was largely steady. Normally, a stronger U.S. dollar would weigh on U.S. dollar-denominated oil prices.
Generally speaking, the current downward risk of oil prices still exists, and negative information is coming one after another in the market. The large increase in inventory in the evening is expected to put pressure on oil prices again. Oil investors are also requested to pay close attention.
As of Beijing time: U.S. crude oil prices were last quoted at .USD/barrel, down by .USD, or .%.
Oil prices fell after a report on U.S. oil inventories, traders said. Data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 10,000 barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories also increased.
Analysts said that after the release of higher-than-expected U.S. inventory data, Brent and U.S. crude oil prices fell slightly overnight, and the momentum of the oil market will continue to decline. Ahead of tonight's big Fed decision, we expect oil prices to be slightly bearish during the Asian session as traders trim long positions.
The oil market has maintained a good upward trend for several weeks before and after the first production reduction agreement in eight years was reached. Over the weekend, non-oil-producing countries including Russia also reached a similar agreement to limit production.
Traders said that oil prices rose to their highest since mid-year earlier this week, boosted by an agreement with other oil exporting countries to jointly reduce production by 10,000 barrels per day, and have since seen massive profit-taking.
Some brokers expect some profit-taking, especially since it is unclear whether the proposed production cuts will be implemented.
In addition, the monthly report stated that the monthly oil output of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is approximately 10,000 barrels/day, which is 10,000 barrels/day higher than the official estimated record figure. Although global oil consumption forecasts were also raised, the production forecast greatly discounted expectations for the impact of production cuts.