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Fundamental analysis:
As the US dollar rose after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise interest rates, and crude oil inventories in the largest crude oil storage center in the United States jumped, State crude oil prices tumbled 5% on Wednesday, reigniting worries about oversupply.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1 basis point to ..%, in line with market expectations. In addition, the resolution statement hinted that the pace of interest rate hikes will accelerate in the future, which boosted the dollar. Afterwards, the Federal Reserve Yellen also expressed an optimistic view on the U.S. economic prospects at a press conference. She said that raising interest rates is an affirmation of the economy.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier on Wednesday that data showed that total U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 10,000 barrels last week, a much larger drop than analysts expected. U.S. crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased for the sixth week in seven weeks.
Although oil-producing countries reached an agreement to reduce production in March, and non-oil-producing countries also agreed to join in production cuts, the monthly report released on March 2 stated that the crude oil production reduction will not rebalance the market until the second half of next year. It is expected that if crude oil production remains stable, the global oil market will have an annual oversupply of 10,000 barrels per day, while last month's monthly report suggested an oversupply of 10,000 barrels per day.
Technical analysis:
Crude oil prices fell sharply by % on Wednesday, and the daily line closed with a large negative line, completely covering the gap window at the beginning of the week. In the short term, the gap window fell to the lower track. The first-line support did not provide any support. The shorts have brought too much resistance, and the price is expected to fall further in the short term. Pay attention to the support level below.
In the medium term, the price is running in an upward channel. In the short term, it is suppressed by the upper track and falls back to find support. Pay close attention to the support strength of the lower track. An effective break below will change the recent rising pattern and open up room for decline. Golden section, the short-term price falls below the support mark of the golden point, and is expected to continue to test the strength of the support point and the first line. There is an obvious signal that oil prices have peaked at a high level. If there is a strong pullback in the short-term correction, the correction target will point to the golden point, and if the price falls weakly, the target will point to the golden point.
Technical indicators show that the fast line has a downward trend, and combined with the continued weakening of the red energy column, if a dead cross is formed in the short term, the price will start to start a downward trend. The three-line highs form a dead cross that diverges downwards, and combined with the top divergence signal, indicates that prices will fall further in the future.
The hourly chart shows that the oil price is operating well in the downward channel. In the short term, it is suppressed by the upper rail and downwards tests the support of the lower rail. Every time the price touches the upper rail, it is the best entry point for short orders. Only by successfully breaking through and stabilizing above the upper rail can changes be made. The recent downward shock pattern has effectively fallen below the lower rail, which will once again open up room for decline.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike overnight boosted the US dollar and suppressed oil prices. It is expected to be further fermented within the day and is expected to further suppress oil prices. In addition, an agreement to reduce production was reached in March, and non-oil-producing countries also joined the ranks of production cuts. All the short-term benefits have been exhausted, and the market is bullish. There will be some relief. It is expected that crude oil prices will be in a correction structure of shock and decline in the second half of the month. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with range fluctuations, pay attention to controlling risks, and protect profits.
Operation suggestions
U.S. crude oil
..Enter the market with a short order, stop loss.USD, target.USD
. Enter with a long order near the US dollar, stop loss.USD, Target.