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On Friday (December 23), Saudi Arabia issued the latest news, predicting that oil prices will remain unchanged next year At around US$55/barrel, it may reach US$65/barrel in 2019. Education and the military will account for the largest expenditures in next year's budget plan.
The 2017 fiscal budget plan report released by Saudi Arabia shows that the budget deficit next year is expected to fall by 33% to 198 billion riyals (US$237 billion), which is 7.7% of GDP. In 2016, the Saudi budget deficit was 297 billion riyals, accounting for 11.5% of GDP; in 2015, the Saudi budget deficit was 362 billion riyals.
According to the report, Saudi Arabia’s budget revenue next year will be 692 billion riyals, of which 480 billion riyals will be contributed by oil revenue, accounting for two-thirds. Non-oil industry budget revenue is $212 billion.
In terms of budget expenditure, Saudi Arabia expects to spend 890 billion riyals next year, 8% higher than in 2016. The bulk of the expenditure is in education and military, with budgets of 200 billion rials and 191 billion rials respectively, accounting for 22% and 21% respectively.
The sharp fall in oil prices in the past two years has dealt a heavy blow to Saudi Arabia's finances. In April this year, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the "Vision 2030 Plan", hoping to bring additional revenue of at least US$100 billion to Saudi Arabia every year in 2020 and enable Saudi Arabia to achieve a balanced budget.
In early June, the Saudi cabinet approved the largest in-depth economic transformation plan in history, which will reduce dependence on the oil industry while maintaining crude oil production capacity. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia also made adjustments to its subsidy system for crude oil products, water and electricity, etc.
Saudi Arabia’s latest budget report stated that the oil industry revenue is expected to grow by 3.37% in 2016, and refining revenue will grow by 14.78%. Subsidies for petroleum products and hydropower will be re-evaluated in the future to achieve efficient use of energy, protect natural resources, avoid irrational use, support low- and middle-income residents and create competitive industries.
The report also mentioned that the IMF expects global economic growth to reach 3.4% in 2017 and oil prices to be US$50.4/barrel, which will push global crude oil demand to rise by 1.1% next year to 95.3 million barrels/day.
At the same time, Saudi media Arabiya mentioned that Saudi Arabia’s own oil price forecast is US$55 per barrel next year under normal circumstances, US$61 in 2018, and will reach US$65 in 2019. If we take a conservative estimate, it will be $49 next year, $52 in 2018, $55 in 2019, and $58 in 2020.
Saudi Arabia’s debt has also surged in the past two years, reaching 316.5 billion riyals this year. The report stated that debt service expenditure will reach 5.4 billion riyals this year and is expected to reach 9.3 billion riyals next year.
According to other market news, Saudi Arabia only reached an agreement to reduce production due to financial difficulties, but in any case, boosting oil prices is what everyone hopes for.